Express delivery from China has revolutionized global e-commerce, enabling rapid access to affordable products worldwide. However, this convenience comes with a substantial environmental cost that extends far beyond what most consumers consider. Understanding the true carbon footprint and broader environmental impacts helps inform more conscious purchasing decisions and supports the case for industry-wide sustainability improvements.
The Scale of China’s Express Delivery Emissions
Massive and Growing Carbon Footprint
China’s express delivery sector generated approximately 23.9 million metric tons of CO₂-equivalent emissions in 2021 alone. To put this in perspective, this single industry sector produces emissions equivalent to the entire carbon footprint of countries like Austria or Israel. The sector’s transportation-related greenhouse gas emissions have surged exponentially, growing from just 0.3 million metric tons in 2007 to 13.7 million metric tons by 2018—a 45-fold increase in just 11 years.
Projections Are Alarming
Under business-as-usual scenarios with no additional climate policies, researchers project express delivery emissions will reach approximately 75 million metric tons of CO₂-equivalent annually by 2035. This represents a more than tripling of current emissions within the next decade.
The rapid growth is driven by China’s e-commerce explosion. The country processed 174.5 billion parcels in 2024, a 21.5% increase from 2023, making China the world’s largest express delivery market for 11 consecutive years. Each additional parcel, while individually seeming modest, cumulatively creates staggering environmental consequences.
Additional Air Pollutants Beyond Carbon
Beyond greenhouse gases, China’s express delivery sector emitted atmospheric pollutants equivalent to approximately 166,400 metric tons, contributing to degraded air quality and exacerbating respiratory and cardiovascular health issues across the population. This represents a hidden public health cost rarely factored into pricing decisions.
Breaking Down Where Express Delivery Emissions Come From
The Role of Different Transportation Modes
The transportation component of express delivery varies significantly by mode. While aviation appears disproportionately polluting on a per-item basis, the sheer volume differences fundamentally change the environmental equation:
- Air freight: Produces 1.46 kg CO₂ per item—nearly six times higher than road transport
- Road/truck transport: Produces 0.27 kg CO₂ per item
- Distribution among modes: Planes carry only 10% of express goods while trucks carry 85%
This creates a critical paradox: although aviation produces more emissions per item, trucking accounts for 56.9% of express delivery transportation emissions (18.74 million tons), while aviation accounts for only 41.8% (13.76 million tons). The sheer volume of truck-based deliveries makes road transport the dominant environmental concern despite its lower per-item impact.
Long-Distance Trucking as the Primary Culprit
Greenpeace analysis reveals that the majority of emissions in China’s e-commerce delivery industry originates from long-distance trucking—the movement of goods between cities and major distribution hubs. This intercity transport represents an opportunity for meaningful emissions reduction through modal shifts toward rail or consolidated sea freight.
Last-Mile Delivery: The Hidden Carbon Bomb
Perhaps the most environmentally damaging stage is often invisible to consumers: last-mile delivery, the final journey from distribution centers to doorsteps. Last-mile delivery accounts for up to 50% of all delivery vehicle CO₂ emissions globally. In the U.S. e-commerce market, last-mile delivery emissions exceeded 4.1 million metric tons in 2020.
The inefficiency stems from fundamental logistics challenges:
- Stop-and-go urban traffic: Delivery vehicles make frequent stops in congested areas, dramatically increasing fuel consumption
- Low vehicle utilization: Urban deliveries average only 2–4 items per stop, meaning most vehicle capacity remains unused
- Fragmented delivery points: Rather than consolidated pickups, individual residential deliveries require separate journeys
- Failed and redeliveries: When customers aren’t home, drivers must return, doubling emissions for a single item
Research indicates that last-mile carbon emissions are expected to increase by as much as 32% by 2030 if current practices continue.
Packaging Waste: A Massive Environmental Problem
Explosive Growth in Packaging Materials
China’s express delivery industry generated approximately 16.5 million metric tons of corrugated cardboard packaging in 2024. This represents a staggering 90-fold increase over just the past 15 years, highlighting the unsustainable growth trajectory of packaging consumption.
The carbon footprint of packaging materials alone surged from 0.03 million metric tons in 2007 to approximately 13.2 million metric tons in 2018—a growth rate of 43% annually. This means the packaging itself now contributes as much carbon as the entire transportation component.
Lifecycle Carbon Impacts of Packaging
Packaging-related carbon emissions break down into three lifecycle stages:
- Raw materials extraction: Accounts for 68.4% of packaging carbon emissions (sourcing fiber and virgin materials)
- Manufacturing: Accounts for 18.8% of carbon emissions (producing boxes from raw materials)
- Disposal and recycling: Accounts for 12.7% of emissions (but also presents opportunities for negative emissions through recycling)
In 2018 alone, express delivery generated 8.8 million metric tons of scrap packaging materials. Most of this ended up in landfills, where cardboard slowly decomposes while occupying valuable space.
The Over-Packaging Problem
A critical issue is systematic over-packaging. Sellers often wrap items excessively for protection during transit, using multiple layers of bubble wrap, plastic, and corrugated boxes for products that could survive simpler packaging. A $2 item might ship in a box weighing 500 grams with protective filler exceeding 200 grams.
China’s new regulations (effective June 1, 2025) attempt to address this by prohibiting wasteful repackaging and requiring logistics firms to limit unnecessary wrapping. Companies like ZTO Express have deployed intelligent systems across 300 warehouses to determine optimal packaging for each parcel, achieving designs that use 25% less material.
Water Consumption and Other Environmental Impacts
Water Footprint of Packaging
Beyond carbon, packaging production consumes substantial water. Research indicates the blue water footprint (freshwater consumption) of China’s corrugated boxes has grown 40-fold since 2007. The gray water footprint (freshwater required to assimilate pollutants) has expanded even more dramatically. This is particularly concerning in water-stressed regions where packaging manufacturing competes with agricultural and municipal needs.
Lost Recyclable Materials
Prior to China’s 2017 import restrictions on waste paper, the country imported significant quantities of recycled cardboard from developed nations. These imports reduced the need for virgin fiber extraction. After the import restriction, Chinese manufacturers increasingly rely on virgin materials, significantly increasing the environmental footprint of domestic packaging production.
Air Quality Degradation
Beyond climate considerations, express delivery operations degrade air quality in major urban centers and manufacturing hubs. Long-distance trucking, regional distribution facilities, and last-mile vehicles collectively contribute to smog, particulate matter, and localized air pollution. This creates compounded health impacts, particularly in the coastal regions (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Jinhua) that generate the highest express delivery volumes.
Comparison: Express vs. Standard Shipping Environmental Impact
Express Shipping (Air Freight)
Express courier services relying on air freight produce significantly higher emissions per item than slower alternatives:
- Carbon intensity: 1.46 kg CO₂ per item via air
- Volume: 10% of express parcels
- Total contribution: 41.8% of transportation emissions despite serving the minority of parcels
Standard Shipping (Sea Freight and Consolidation)
Standard shipping methods, particularly consolidated sea freight, produce dramatically lower emissions per item:
- Carbon intensity: Ships emit 95% less CO₂ per ton-mile than planes
- Volume: 85% of express parcels use ground/standard methods
- Total contribution: 56.9% of emissions via trucks, but only 1.46 kg per item air equivalent
The Environmental Trade-off
Choosing standard shipping over express delivery represents one of the most significant environmental decisions a consumer can make. A product shipped via consolidated sea freight generates a fraction of the emissions of express air delivery. For example, a 2 kg item shipped via standard consolidation produces approximately 0.5 kg CO₂, while the same item via express air freight produces 2.92 kg CO₂—nearly 6 times higher.
However, the time cost is substantial. Standard shipping from China typically requires 10–30 days versus 3–7 days for express. This extended timeline works for consumers with flexible schedules but fails for time-sensitive purchases.
What Major Courier Companies Are Doing
DHL’s GoGreen Initiative
DHL launched its GoGreen strategy in 2007 with a target of achieving zero carbon emissions by 2050. By 2025, DHL aims to increase carbon efficiency by 50% compared to 2007 levels and reduce 70% of local air emissions from first and last-mile services through electric vehicle deployment.
DHL’s GoGreen Plus service enables customers to reduce shipment carbon footprints using Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), which can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 80% compared to conventional jet fuel. However, this optional service carries cost premiums, limiting adoption primarily to sustainability-conscious customers willing to pay extra.
FedEx Environmental Goals
FedEx committed to reducing aircraft emissions by 30% by 2020 (from 2005 baseline) and has achieved 22% reduction so far. The company aims to use alternative fuels for 30% of jet fuel by 2030, with initial commercial deployments anticipated. FedEx also focuses on vehicle fuel efficiency, aiming for 50% improvement in Express vehicle fuel efficiency by 2025, having achieved 35% so far.
UPS Sustainability Strategy
UPS targets electric power or alternative fuel for one in four new vehicles purchased, renewable energy sources for 25% of electricity by 2025, and replacement of 40% of all ground fuel with alternative fuel by 2025. The company employs intelligent route planning to reduce delivery mileage and has improved UPS Airlines carbon intensity by 9.3%.
China-Specific Initiatives
Chinese logistics companies have accelerated green efforts following the June 2025 new regulations. JDL Express, SF Express, and Deppon Express now deploy reusable circulation boxes for inter-station transfers, reducing single-use packaging. These initiatives, while meaningful, remain insufficient to offset the volume growth of the industry.
The Potential for Emission Reductions
Packaging Waste Reduction Opportunities
Life cycle assessment studies indicate that a 35% reduction in packaging consumption is feasible by 2030. This would require:
- Standardized, optimized box sizes reducing excess void space
- Transitioning from expanded polystyrene to recycled cardboard protective materials
- Redesigned packaging using thinner, stronger materials
- Mandatory recycling and circular economy practices
Implementing these changes could prevent annual carbon emissions equivalent to removing millions of vehicles from roads.
Modal Shift Opportunities
The dominance of long-distance trucking (56.9% of transportation emissions) creates significant opportunity for modal shifting. Consolidating parcels onto trains or ships for intercity transport would reduce per-item emissions by 80–95% compared to trucking. However, this requires accepting longer delivery windows—standard shipping models that take 2–3 weeks instead of 7 days.
Last-Mile Delivery Innovations
Solutions to reduce last-mile emissions include:
- Electric and hybrid delivery vehicles: Reduce tailpipe emissions by 70–90%
- Consolidated delivery centers: Reduce the number of delivery vehicles required
- Bike and e-bike couriers: Zero-emission last-mile delivery in urban areas
- Local pickup points: Reduce individual delivery trips by consolidating multiple items
- Optimized routing: AI-powered software reduces fuel consumption by 5–15%
Reduction Potential: Implementing comprehensive last-mile efficiency improvements could reduce emissions from this stage by 30–50%.
What Consumers Can Do
Choose Standard Shipping When Possible
Selecting standard over express shipping represents perhaps the single most impactful individual action. A consumer who chooses standard shipping for non-urgent items eliminates approximately 80% of transportation-related carbon emissions.
Consolidate Orders
Rather than multiple orders, consolidating purchases into fewer shipments reduces the total number of parcels (and associated packaging waste) by half or more. This also reduces last-mile delivery trips.
Offset Carbon Footprints
Several platforms now enable carbon offsetting at checkout. EcoCart and similar services calculate shipment emissions and direct funds toward verified renewable energy projects, reforestation, or clean-tech innovations. While not eliminating emissions, offsetting provides an immediate mitigation option.
Support Sustainable Brands
Research indicates 66% of consumers are willing to pay more for sustainable brands. Companies offering carbon-neutral shipping options or using sustainable packaging deserve consumer support, as they invest in offsetting core business emissions.
Advocate for Regulatory Change
Consumer pressure influences corporate environmental commitments more effectively than individual purchasing decisions. Supporting policies that mandate green packaging, incentivize modal shifting, and hold logistics companies accountable for emissions creates systemic change.
The Bigger Picture: China’s Shipping Sector Progress
Domestic Shipping Improvements
China’s maritime shipping sector has achieved significant emissions reductions despite growth. The Energy Efficiency Operational Indicator (EEOI) of China’s shipping industry has decreased approximately 20% compared to 2010. NOx and SOx emissions have reduced by 30% and 40% respectively during the same period.
Investments in shore power infrastructure (allowing docked ships to use electric power rather than diesel) have accelerated, with ports like Qingdao, Ningbo-Zhoushan, and Wuhan allocating more than 50% of energy consumption to electricity. These improvements demonstrate that large-scale shipping decarbonization is technically feasible.
Future Pathways
Research indicates that with mandatory energy efficiency standards and low-carbon fuel regulations, China’s domestic coastal shipping emissions could peak by 2040 and fall significantly by 2060. Without such policies, emissions would more than triple to over 162 million metric tons by 2060.
The Bottom Line
Express delivery from China provides undeniable consumer benefits—affordability, speed, and product accessibility. However, this convenience is subsidized by substantial environmental costs borne collectively: 23.9 million metric tons of CO₂-equivalent emissions annually, 166,400 metric tons of air pollutants, millions of metric tons of packaging waste, and significant water consumption.
The environmental impact stems from multiple sources: air freight, long-distance trucking, inefficient last-mile delivery, and excessive packaging. No single solution addresses all impacts; rather, systemic change requires coordinated action from governments (regulation and incentives), logistics companies (investment in cleaner technology), manufacturers (sustainable packaging), and consumers (choosing slower shipping and consolidating orders).
For sustainability-conscious consumers in Latin America and elsewhere, the most impactful choice is reserving express shipping for genuinely urgent needs, selecting standard delivery when time permits, and consolidating orders to minimize shipments. This single behavioral shift can reduce the environmental impact of e-commerce consumption by 60–80%. As logistics companies continue improving, and regulations tighten worldwide, the environmental cost-benefit equation of fast shipping may shift more favorably—but until then, moderation in delivery speed represents the most accessible path to responsible consumption.